It’s February 2026, and I think it’s worth stepping back from the weekly news cycle to assess where Australia actually stands in the energy transition. Not the spin from industry groups or politicians, but an honest look at the data.

The verdict? Surprisingly good in some areas, frustratingly behind in others.

Where we’re ahead of schedule

Rooftop solar. By almost any measure, Australia’s rooftop solar deployment has exceeded expectations. Over 3.5 million systems installed, more than 20GW of distributed capacity, one in three homes with panels. This is a genuine world-leading achievement, driven by strong economics, good policy (STCs), and Australians’ pragmatic approach to saving money.

Utility-scale renewables. Large-scale solar and wind projects continue to be built at impressive rates. Renewable generation now accounts for roughly 40% of total NEM generation, up from under 20% a decade ago. On good days, it’s much higher.

Battery storage deployment. While we need more, the pace of battery installation — both grid-scale and household — has accelerated dramatically. The Waratah Super Battery and other large projects are world-class.

Where we’re falling behind

Transmission infrastructure. New transmission lines to connect renewable energy zones to demand centres are running years behind schedule. Without them, renewable generation gets curtailed and the transition slows. The regulatory and community consultation processes for new transmission are broken.

Gas transition. Natural gas was supposed to be a “transition fuel,” but we’re still building gas infrastructure with decades-long lifespans. Gas prices have risen sharply, making it an increasingly expensive bridge. The residential gas phase-out has barely begun in most states outside Victoria.

Transport electrification. EV sales are growing but from a tiny base. Australia is years behind Europe and China in EV adoption, partly due to the absence (until recently) of fuel efficiency standards and limited model availability compared to other markets.

Industrial decarbonisation. Heavy industry — mining, smelting, cement, chemicals — accounts for a huge share of emissions and has barely begun to transition. Some pilot projects in green hydrogen and electrification exist, and AI agent builders in Brisbane are developing monitoring systems for industrial energy optimisation, but industrial emissions remain the elephant in the room.

The policy landscape

Federal policy has improved since the current government took office. The Safeguard Mechanism, Capacity Investment Scheme, and various ARENA funding programs are all positive steps. But the pace of policy implementation still lags the pace of technological change.

State-level variation is significant. Victoria has been the most aggressive on electrification policy, banning new gas connections and offering generous battery rebates. South Australia leads on renewable integration. Queensland is building large-scale projects but has been slower on residential policy. NSW has strong programs (ESS, PDRS) but complex implementation.

The opposition’s energy policy remains a source of uncertainty. The possibility of a policy reversal at the next federal election creates investment risk that slows private sector commitment.

What needs to happen next

Speed up transmission. This is the single biggest bottleneck. Streamline planning processes, establish national interest tests that can override local objections where necessary, and fund under-grounding where visual impact is the main concern.

Accelerate battery deployment. A national battery rebate (I’ve argued for this before) would dramatically accelerate distributed storage. Grid-scale storage needs streamlined planning and connection processes.

Fix the EV charging network. Reliability and coverage, especially in regional areas. Federal funding should come with binding uptime and maintenance requirements.

Address equity. The benefits of the transition are accruing disproportionately to homeowners and higher-income households. Renters, apartment dwellers, and regional communities need targeted programs to ensure they benefit too.

Plan for workforce transition. Coal communities need real transition support, not just promises. Retraining, economic diversification, and infrastructure investment in affected regions should be funded now, not when the last mine closes.

My overall assessment

Australia’s energy transition is happening faster than most people realise, driven primarily by economics rather than policy. Solar is cheaper than any alternative. Batteries are approaching grid parity. EVs are cheaper to run than petrol cars. The economics are doing most of the heavy lifting.

But economics alone won’t complete the transition. Infrastructure, equity, and policy coordination need significant improvement. And the political cycle creates constant uncertainty that slows investment and planning.

On balance, I’m cautiously optimistic. The direction is right. The pace needs to be faster. And the benefits need to be shared more broadly. As someone who writes about energy every day, I’ve never been more convinced that the transition will succeed. I’ve also never been more frustrated by the unnecessary obstacles slowing it down.

The energy system we’re building will be cleaner, cheaper, and more resilient than what it replaces. Getting there is messy, contentious, and slower than it should be. But we’re further along than we were, and that counts for something.