Let’s be honest with ourselves. The 44-cent feed-in tariff isn’t coming back. The 20-cent tariff isn’t coming back. Even the 12-cent tariff that felt disappointing five years ago looks generous now. Most solar owners in 2026 are getting 5-7 cents per kWh for their exports, and in some markets it’s trending towards zero during peak solar hours.

I see the complaints in every solar forum. “They’re ripping us off!” “The government should mandate higher feed-in rates!” “I was promised a return on my investment!”

I get the frustration. But complaining about feed-in tariff rates is like complaining about the weather. It’s not going to change, and the energy spent complaining could be better directed at adapting to the new reality.

Why feed-in tariffs fell

The explanation is simple supply and demand. When a small percentage of homes had solar, their exports were valuable — they offset the need for grid generation during the day. Energy companies were willing to pay a premium for that power.

Now that one in three Australian houses has solar, the grid is flooded with power during the middle of the day. The wholesale price at 1pm regularly drops to 2-4 cents per kWh, sometimes negative. Why would a retailer pay you 20 cents for something they can buy on the wholesale market for 3 cents?

It’s not a conspiracy. It’s not greed. It’s market economics, and it was entirely predictable.

The new economics of solar

If you’re still thinking of your solar system as a money-making export machine, you need to update your mental model. In 2026, solar is about avoided costs, not export revenue.

Every kilowatt-hour you use from your own panels is a kilowatt-hour you don’t buy from the grid at 30-45 cents. That’s where the real value lives. A kilowatt-hour used at home is worth 5-8 times more than a kilowatt-hour exported.

This fundamentally changes how you should think about your system and your energy habits.

What to do about it

Shift your consumption to solar hours. Run your dishwasher at 11am, not 8pm. Set your washing machine on a timer. Run your pool pump from 9am to 3pm instead of overnight. Every load you move to solar hours saves you 25-40 cents per kWh compared to evening peak.

Heat your water during the day. If you’ve got a heat pump or even a standard electric hot water system, put it on a timer to run between 10am and 2pm. Your solar can easily handle the load, and you’re effectively storing solar energy as hot water.

Consider a battery. If you’re exporting heavily during the day and buying back at peak rates in the evening, a battery bridges the gap. The economics are marginal for some households but solid for others, especially those on time-of-use tariffs with large peak/off-peak differentials.

Join a VPP. If you have a battery, a virtual power plant program can earn you $300-600 per year in additional value. It won’t replace the old feed-in tariff income, but it’s better than nothing.

Right-size your future system. If you’re adding panels, think about what you’ll actually consume rather than maximising export. A slightly smaller system with a battery might provide better financial returns than a massive array that exports most of its production at 5 cents.

The solar-plus-battery future

The industry is already shifting. Solar companies increasingly quote solar-plus-battery packages as the default, because they know the economics only work long-term if you’re storing and self-consuming most of your generation.

The companies doing the most interesting work in this space are combining AI-driven energy management with battery optimisation. AI consultants in Sydney are working with energy retailers to develop smarter algorithms for managing distributed energy resources, and the residential products that come out of this research are getting genuinely useful.

This is the future: your home as an active participant in the energy system, generating, storing, consuming, and trading energy based on real-time signals. Not a passive generator pushing power into the grid for a fixed rate.

Stop mourning, start adapting

The golden age of generous feed-in tariffs was a market anomaly — a brief period when solar was rare enough to be valuable to the grid. It served its purpose: it incentivised millions of Australians to go solar. Mission accomplished.

Now we’re in the next phase, where the value of solar comes from intelligent self-consumption and battery storage rather than grid exports. It’s a different game, but the savings are still substantial for those who adapt.

Or you can keep posting angry comments on solar forums. Your call.