Queensland’s solar incentive landscape is about to get another shake-up, and if you’ve been sitting on the fence about going solar, the next few months matter.

The state government announced adjustments to the Solar for Renters trial program late last month, and there are rumours about changes to the way Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs) will be calculated from April. I’ve been digging into the details, and here’s what I’ve found.

What’s actually changing

First, the big one: STC multiplier zones. If you’re in regional Queensland — think Townsville, Cairns, or anywhere west of the Great Dividing Range — you’ve been getting slightly more generous STC values than your Brisbane counterparts. That’s not going away entirely, but the zone boundaries are being reviewed. The Clean Energy Regulator has flagged that some postcodes may shift categories.

For a typical 6.6kW system, this could mean a difference of $200-400 in the upfront discount you get through your installer. Not massive, but it’s real money.

Second, the Solar for Renters program. This one’s been a mess from the start, frankly. The idea was sound — help renters access solar without needing landlord buy-in for full installations. But the execution? Portable solar kits and plug-in systems aren’t exactly going to run your air conditioning through a Townsville summer.

The updated program will reportedly expand to include some shared solar arrangements for apartment blocks. That’s actually interesting and worth watching.

STCs: still the biggest incentive

If you’re not familiar with STCs, here’s the short version. When you install a solar system, you create certificates based on how much energy the system is expected to generate over its remaining deeming period (currently running to 2030). You sell those certificates — usually through your installer, who gives you an upfront discount.

Right now, a 6.6kW system in Brisbane generates roughly 90-95 STCs. At current market prices around $38-40 each, that’s about $3,400-3,800 off your system cost. Not bad.

But the deeming period reduces each year. In 2026, you’ll get fewer years of deemed generation, which means fewer certificates, which means a smaller discount. Every year you wait, the STC value drops. This has been the pattern since the scheme started, and it’s not changing.

Should you wait or go now?

Look, I get this question constantly. And the honest answer is: if your roof is suitable and you can afford the out-of-pocket cost, there’s almost no scenario where waiting makes financial sense.

Panel prices have stabilised. They’re not dropping the way they were in 2019-2022. Inverter costs are actually slightly up thanks to supply chain issues. And the STC discount shrinks every January.

The one exception? If you’re looking at a battery too. Battery prices are still coming down meaningfully — maybe 8-12% year on year for residential systems. If you’re doing a full solar-plus-battery install, getting quotes now but not rushing to sign might make sense, especially if you can lock in 2026 STC values early in the year.

The feed-in tariff situation

Queensland’s feed-in tariffs have been declining for years, and 2026 looks like more of the same. Ergon and Energex customers are seeing rates around 5-7 cents per kWh for exports, down from the heady days of 44-cent FiTs.

This matters because it changes the economics. Solar isn’t about selling power back to the grid anymore. It’s about using as much of your own generation as possible. That means right-sizing your system, thinking about when you use power, and eventually adding storage.

My take

I’ve had my system for three years now, and my only regret is not doing it sooner. The payback period for a well-designed system in Queensland is still under four years for most households. That’s a better return than almost any other home investment you can make.

Don’t get paralysed by policy changes. The fundamentals haven’t shifted: sunshine is free, electricity prices keep climbing, and solar technology is mature and reliable. The best time to install was last year. The second best time is now.

I’ll keep tracking the specific rebate numbers as they’re confirmed and update this piece when the CER releases the 2026 STC calculation methodology.